The Mexican peso has become somewhat unloved since the U. January The change since Trump The years since have proven a rocky period for emerging markets EM local debt. Between and , EM local funds built aggressive exposures in domestic currency assets at close to peak valuations, encouraged by unprecedented monetary easing in the developed world. Later, local EM debt experienced a massive selloff, beginning with the taper tantrum of May This was followed by a gradual deceleration of the Chinese economy, a deterioration of current account balances in emerging economies, the rise of the US dollar and the collapse of commodity prices in , all of which enhanced the trend. From late to the middle of our portfolios often ran aggressively short or underweight positions in EM currencies for prolonged periods of time. Back then, we firmly believed that currency depreciations were required to restore EM external account balances to more sustainable levels. A lot of new information has surfaced since March, however. The impact of the US election on the value of the dollar and, as a consequence, on EM currencies is now of critical importance. The purpose of this note is to provide an update on the balance of risks that EM currencies confront under the new global outlook, post US elections, as well as to share our views on where we see the best risk adjusted returns over the coming years.
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